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Musings on Markets
JANUARY 19, 2022
In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021). The year that was.
Musings on Markets
OCTOBER 4, 2023
The Markets in the Third Quarter Coming off a year of rising rates in 2022, interest rates have continued to command center stage in 2023. At the start of October, the ten-year and thirty-year rates were both approaching 15-year highs, with the 10-year treasury at 4.59% and the 30-year treasury rate at 4.73%.
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Musings on Markets
MAY 6, 2022
The good news is that the culprit behind the volatility is easy to identify, and it is inflation, but the bad news is that inflation remains the most unpredictable of all macroeconomic factors to factor into stock prices and value.
Musings on Markets
MARCH 25, 2021
The first has been the steep rise in treasury rates in the last twelve weeks, as investors reassess expected economic growth over the rest of the year and worry about inflation. The Interest Rates Story To me the biggest story of markets in 2021 has been the rise of interest rates, especially at the long end of the maturity spectrum.
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 8, 2022
Happy New Year, and I hope that 2022 brings you good tidings! To start the year, I returned to a ritual that I have practiced for thirty years, and that is to take a look at not just market changes over the last year, but also to get measures of the financial standing and practices of companies around the world.
Musings on Markets
AUGUST 5, 2023
As part of that obsession, since September 2008, I have estimated an equity risk premium for the S&P 500 at the start of each month, and not only used that premium, when valuing companies during that month, but shared my estimate on my webpage and on social media. What is it?
Musings on Markets
JANUARY 20, 2021
Investors are constantly in search of a single metric that will tell them whether a market is under or over valued, and consequently whether they should buying or selling holdings in that market. Does the price of risk have to be positive? The answer depends on whether human beings are risk averse or not.
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